2-Year Treasury Yield Tops 10-Year Rate, a ‘Yield Curve' Inversion That Could Signal a Recession

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2-Year Treasury Yield Tops 10-Year Rate, a ‘Yield Curve' Inversion That Could Signal a Recession
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The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019, sending a warning that a recession could be on the horizon.

In general, a simple way to look at the importance of the yield curve is to think about what it means for a bank. The yield curve measures the spread between a bank's cost of money versus what it will make by lending it out or investing it over a longer period of time. If banks can't make money, lending slows and so does economic activity.

According to MUFG Securities, the yield curve inverted 422 days ahead of the 2001 recession, 571 days ahead of the 2007-to-2009 recession and 163 days before the 2020 recession. Bespoke notes that after six instances where the 2-year and 10-year yields inverted going back to 1978, the stock market continued to perform positively. Thewas up an average 1.6% a month after the inversions but was up an average 13.3% a year later.

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