Ukraine war has highlighted limits of the lure of western values globally and the scepticism of much of the global south over the West’s intentions
The US and EU states have stopped short of supplying Ukraine with weapons to hit targets inside Russia, and insofar as Ukrainian forces have done so in recent weeks, it has been with improvised weaponry. For its part, Moscow has avoided striking the territory of Nato member-states.
Less than three weeks before the start of the conflict, the chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milley, told a congressional committee that Kyiv was likely to fall within 72 hours of a full-scale Russian invasion. Putin’s failure to take Kyiv and Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s physical courage in refusing to accept a safe haven in Poland were decisive in shaping the popular response to the conflict, particularly in Europe.
“If we want the last 30 years to be more than a historical exception, then we must do everything we can to maintain the cohesion of the European Union, the strength of Nato, to forge even closer relations with our friends, our partners and all those who share our convictions worldwide.” But even as Nato deployed multinational forces to the Baltic states, in breach of the 1997 Nato-Russia Founding Act, it held back from designating Russia a “threat”. That changed at Madrid, where the Nato leaders also declared that “the People’s Republic of China’s [PRC’s] stated ambitions and coercive policies” challenge Nato’s interests, security and values.
The solidarity shown by the EU towards Ukraine took the form of economic assistance, shelter for refugees and economic sanctions against Russia. But the EU also offered military support through the so-called European Peace Facility, which delivered €6 billion in military equipment from the member-states to Ukraine.
If the Europeans were quick to fall into lockstep with the US after the invasion, some Asian, African and Latin American countries were more reluctant. Although most countries supported a UN resolution condemning Russia, those who abstained included not only China but India, South Africa and Brazil. “There is a linkage today which is being made. A linkage between China and India and what’s happening in Ukraine. China and India happened way before anything happened in Ukraine. The Chinese do not need a precedent somewhere else on how to engage us or not engage us or be difficult with us or not be difficult with us.”
For the US, the risk is not just that it will overplay its hand but that it may have shown it too soon, giving China time to prepare. Beijing is already taking steps to encourage more of its trading partners to accept payment in its own currency, the yuan, rather than in dollars.
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