Colorado State University updated its 2023 hurricane outlook today – here's what they changed:
The 2023 hurricane season outlook is more challenging than usual.First, an El Niño is increasingly likely, which tends to tamp down the number of storms.Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletterA new outlook from Colorado State University piled onto forecasters' expectations for a near-average, but more unpredictable, 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season.is for 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 status.
"This combination of an incipient El Niño and very warm north Atlantic sea-surface temperatures is unprecedented in the recent record," wrote the AG2 team in their outlook issued in mid-May.A Developing El Niño by summer, and various computer forecast models suggested it could become strong by the heart of the hurricane season: August through October.
That's because the Bermuda high tends to be weaker, and it's also due to a more persistent dip in the upper-level winds in the southeastern U.S. during El Niños, according to AG2.The Atlantic Ocean Is Very WarmHurricane season generally begins when water temperatures reach the rough threshold of 80 degrees, which usually occurs between June 1 and Nov. 30. If other factors are equal, the deeper and warmer ocean water is, the stronger a hurricane can become.
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