Reports by PwC Ireland and Avolon note air travel rebound and investment required to hit carbon targets
This brings forward the “recovery horizon” for the sector by 12 months compared to previous expectations, PwC Ireland said, with airline results forecast to be “much stronger” in 2024.
“However, the ability to scale up production and make SAF an affordable alternative is far from reality,” he said. “The ability to blend any SAF product with kerosene close to the 50 per cent maximum currently mandated for safety reasons is unlikely to be met for at least a decade unless there is a step change in production capability.”
Led by Europe and North America, international traffic, although slower to recover, has now reached 75 per cent of pre-Covid volumes, according to the report. As a consequence of last year’s rebound, Avolon chief executive Andy Cronin said airlines are “enjoying higher fares and load factors”. This helped position airlines “on the brink of break-even in 2022″, according to the report with industry profits now forecast to be $4.7 billion this year compared to a loss of $138 million in 2020.Avolon’s report noted that while SAF can help cut emissions by 80 per cent, it “comes at a cost three to five times that of existing jet fuel”.
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