Listen: Ambassador Bill Taylor has been the top U.S. diplomat in Ukraine twice, most recently under President Trump. He joins OnPointRadio to discuss how the United States’ relationship with Ukraine is changing.
WASHINGTON, DC - FEBRUARY 02: Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor testifies before the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe February 2, 2022 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The commission held a hearing on"Russia's Assault on Ukraine and the International Order: Assessing and Bolstering the Western Response." "Ukraine has had six changes of president — back and forth, back and forth, back and forth," Taylor says.
TAYLOR: In his office in Kyiv. Of course, the presidential administration is a big complex of buildings there in the center of Kyiv. Several of us were there to show support for Ukraine, and a couple of us sat down with President Zelenskyy at that time CHAKRABARTI: So his message to the Ukrainian people. But did he also tell you about whether Ukraine was making preparations for an invasion? And when you say imminent, did President Zelenskyy essentially make it clear that he believed that Russia was indeed going to invade?
TAYLOR: Determined, I would say. Grim, focused. As you indicated in your introduction, I'd met him in 2019 just after he had been inaugurated, so I got there in June. He'd been inaugurated just a month before. I had good opportunity to have several conversations with him that summer through the fall.
It was clear to me that this would be able under were he to invade, and I thought that he would recognize, that he would do that same cost-benefit calculation that most of us did and many of us did. And so, yes, I put it 55-45 against an invasion. Turns out it was greater than that. We know, as you just said, he invaded and he's paying the price. Putin is paying the heavy price that we all saw.
TAYLOR: It is fair to say, it is fair to say. I have many good friends, many good friends, Ukrainians, I have, with whom I'm in touch daily. I'm in touch this morning with one of my good friends since 2006, who's now in the army. He's on the front line, and he he's sent me a couple of notes from the battlefield. ... And many of the people that I worked with at the embassy, the Ukrainians that work at the embassy are phenomenal.
In order to get back to that, the Russians are going to have to get out of or be driven out of Ukraine. So getting back to that, we can talk more about that, I'm sure. But that will be important if we're going to look forward, if we're going to move forward in some kind of a peaceful order in Europe. And more broadly where disputes are not solved by force. That's one of the main reasons that we cared. Not the only one, but we care a lot about Ukraine.
TAYLOR: I didn't, actually. I supported the membership action plan, the first step in the process towards NATO membership for Ukraine and Georgia. And the reason is that it was not just that moment that we were looking at. Ukraine and other former Soviet states, and other former Warsaw Pact nations, knew and know Russian history. They knew Soviet history. They knew that Russia for centuries has been ruled by autocrats, by czars. They remember Joseph Stalin.
TAYLOR: I was not. I stayed in Kyiv. I stayed in Kyiv. As I say, President Bush and his whole team, Condi Rice was the secretary of state and Steve Hadley was the national security advisor. And others came through, again, to meet the Ukrainians so that they could go to Bucharest and make the case for NATO's membership. And I stayed in Kyiv. They went on to Bucharest.
And he called any NATO expansion a direct threat. And then on the sidelines of what was happening at the summit in Bucharest, the then Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko was quoted as saying, quote: ‘Georgia and Ukraine's membership in the alliance is a huge strategic mistake, which would have most serious consequences for Pan European security.’ How is this reverberating with you and the U.S.
That was only a five day incursion, but there was a Russian military presence there, at least across a large chunk of Georgian territory, for quite some time. So you can see that two ways, right? As you just said, had NATO expansion been accelerated into Ukraine and Georgia, perhaps Putin wouldn't have even attacked Georgia.
CHAKRABARTI: And I mean, one would think also that hopefully the international community would notice that Vladimir Putin was willing to make good on his promises about aggression towards these countries. And so let's move forward a little bit into the Obama administration. But I really want to understand the truth behind that language because if my recollection is accurate. The Obama administration was reluctant to provide lethal support to the Ukrainians, even after, as we just talked about, Russia showed it was willing to send troops into Georgia. What do you think about that?
And let's be clear, they had already been invaded in 2014 and they were trying to defend themselves. And we were making the case for providing these and we got a very positive reception. We heard from most of the people we talked to in State Department, Defense Department, the NSC, that they supported that. But there was reluctance again right at the top to provide these weapons for fear of provocation.
CHAKRABARTI: I'm glad you brought up Congress, by the way, because of course, Congress actually plays a huge role in all this, being the body that approves how the U.S. supports nations like Ukraine. But ambassador, if I might just push a little bit on this. Because I mean, the Obama example does make me wonder. OK, consistent support for nonlethal support.
CHAKRABARTI: Today, we're talking with Ambassador Bill Taylor. He's currently vice president for Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He served two stints as the United States top diplomat in Ukraine from 2006 to 2009 as ambassador, and then in 2019 to 2020 as the Chargé d’Affaires. And I made it clear. I said, Mr. Secretary, your boss doesn't support Ukraine. That's clear. And so I'm not sure I can go out and represent the United States if I am not convinced, if I'm not sure, if you can't assure me that that strong support that has been our policy up until now, will continue. Because it might not, for reasons he fully understood. And he assured me that the strong support would continue.
TAYLOR: That is correct. That is correct. So the phone call took place about the 24th of July, as I recall. I was not on that call, nor was anybody else that I was with there at the time. We had a meeting with President Zelenskyy the next day, several of us. There were a couple of people visiting from out of town. Ambassador Sondland, Ambassador Volker and I had a meeting with President Zelenskyy after that and we talked about the phone call, but none of the three of us were on that call.
TAYLOR: The Ukrainian military, we were briefed by the commander of forces out there in the bunker next to the front line. And without specifying javelins, he was very appreciative of the support that he was getting. Because it was not just javelins, it was the ability to see where the artillery fire was coming from. It was sniper weapons again, lethal weapons that he appreciated.
TAYLOR: I thought there must be some mistake. Again, without knowledge of that phone call. I thought that there must be some bureaucratic mistake back in Washington that would have held up this flow of support, of military support, of these weapons to the front lines of the Ukrainians fighting the Russians. I thought there must be a ... mistake somehow.
CHAKRABARTI: Well, I don't love counterfactual questions, but I can't help myself in this case because, you know, you had said during the Obama administration, you wish that more aid had been sent in terms of those lethal weapons. Of course, we're talking about what happened under the Trump administration. Do you think it would have made any difference, stymieing the Russians, if the U.S.
CHAKRABARTI: I have only four minutes left with you, ambassador. This has been really quite an edifying conversation, but I do have three more questions for you. First of all, as you know, President Biden has recently gone so far as to say what the Russians are doing in Ukraine is a genocide. Of course, he's also said that it'll be up to international bodies to formally decide whether or not that's true.