Americans are more concerned with the economy even as unemployment has reached one of its lowest rates in 70 years. The second quarter’s contraction in GDP show those fears are well founded
in the run-up to the announcement, keen to soothe voters ahead of November’s crucial mid-term elections. The official determination of whether America is in recession is made by the National Bureau for Economic Research, but Americans are already gloomy about the state of the economy. An index published by the Conference Board, an economic-research firm, on July 26th showed that consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest since the lull induced by the covid-19 pandemic.
The last time economic anxiety was polling so high was in May 2014. That was six years after the onset of the global financial crisis. By then, the unemployment rate had fallen back nearly to pre-crisis levels, and both the stockmarket and GDP had recovered from the crash. Concern about the economy continued to fade until 2020, when uncertainty about the pandemic caused a dramatic drop in employment, spending and productivity.
But in contrast to the recovery in sentiment after the collapse of 2008, Americans have this time grown more concerned with the economy even as unemployment has reached one of its lowest rates in 70 years. The recent sharp increase in the share who say the economy is their top issue instead reflects concerns about inflation as well as uncertainty about future growth. The second quarter’s contraction in GDP show those fears are well founded.
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