Analysis: Amid Russian aggression, NATO nonalignment creates risk for Finland and Sweden
In the wilds of Scandinavia, more than 30,000 troops are conducting live-fire drills at Cold Response, one of the West’s largest military exercises since the end of the Cold War.
“In Sweden, defense was a low priority before the Ukraine war,” Anna Wieslander, the Stockholm-based Northern Europe director for the Atlantic Council, told me. “Now, it’s the number one issue.”Of the six European Union countries that are not members of NATO — a short list that also includes Austria, Cyprus, Ireland and Malta — Finland and Sweden are seen as perhaps the most likely candidates, but also the ones that would gall Russia the most.
But few observers see that as a security solution for either country. The E.U. clause lacks the force of NATO’s Article 5 — which provides for the alliance’s defense umbrella. For one, the E.U. treaty does not apply to some of the most important NATO armies — including the United States, Britain and Turkey.
“When alternatives and risks have been analyzed, then it’s time for conclusions,” Niinistö told reporters last week. “We have safe solutions also for our future. We must review them carefully. Not with delay, but carefully.”
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