Analysis: If voters are wary of stating support for Trump in polls, why does he outperform Senate candidates?
last September, referring to one of those Trump-friendly polls. “And a lot of people say add 10 points to anything. Anybody voting for Trump, you can add — anytime you get a poll, you can add 10 points or seven points or six points. Take it any way you want.
For Trump, this theory has the happy side effect of making his support look larger than it otherwise would be. He’s not trailing former vice presidentFor external observers, though, it raises an interesting question: To what extent, if any, are polls missing Trump’s support? Clearly, some state polls missed the mark in 2016, leading forecasts to assume he had less of a chance of winning than he did.
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