Analysis: Stefanos Tsitsipas might be the best bet in a powerhouse French Open field
Tsitsipas, the No. 4 seed, came close to winning the title last June, losing to Djokovic in a five-set final in which he won the first two sets. And an analysis of his performance on clay this year shows that Tsitsipas has been 8.5 games better than an average player after adjusting for competition faced, the top mark in the field.How do we find that number? By looking at how Tsitsipas has done — and how his opponents have done — on clay this year, similar to how teams can be ranked using the.
Alcaraz has been the second-best men’s player on clay this year, 8.0 games better than an average player, followed by Djokovic , seventh-seeded Andrey Rublev and third-seeded Alexander Zverev . Tsitsipas’s first-round opponent, Lorenzo Musetti, who took two sets off Djokovic in the fourth round of last year’s French Open, is rated 4.9 games better than an average player on clay. That means we would expect Tsitsipas to win by three or four games in a three-set match.
Also in Tsitsipas’s quarter are Canada’s Denis Shapovalov , Australia’s Alex de Minaur and Dan Evans of Great Britain . Tsitsipas, however, has a 14-1 collective record against those three. One other potential stumbling block could be Norway’s Casper Ruud, the eighth seed, who could await Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals. Ruud beat Tsitsipas in straight sets last year in Madrid but he has been almost 3.5 games worse than Tsitsipas on clay in 2022.
After adjusting her performance on clay this year, she has been 14.2 games better than an average player, four games better than Russia’s Anastasia Potapova or Tunisia’s Ons Jabeur. Potapova was ousted by Finland’s Anastasia Kulikova in the qualifying round, but Jabeur offers some value if you are looking for someone to wager on aside from Swiatek at a short price.
Jabeur made history in Madrid, becoming the first African player to win a WTA 1000 event. That victory moved her from No. 10 to a career high No. 7 in the world rankings, and she’s since inched up to No. 6. She’s reached the last 16 at Roland Garros in each of the past two years and she’s got a
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