Questions about the strength of Trump's current position ignore that he doesn't need a majority of Republicans to vote for him in the 2024 primary.
This is certainly not the position in which Trump would like to find himself as speculation about the Republican field in two years’ time starts to take shape. Trump wants to box people out, for them to see him as so dominant that there’s no point in entering the race. He wants, in essence, for the 2024 primary to unfold the way the 2020 one did: a clear field that allowed him to glide toward the general election.
See the yellow area on the graph below ? That’s the under-50-percent zone. Trump’s the only winning presidential candidate embedded in it. President Biden, by contrast, won most of the primary and general election votes cast. But the system helped him in two ways. The first is that there’s a built-in advantage that goes to the winning candidate in a primary in many states. Nominations are won after candidates accrue a majority of delegates to the party convention. Often, the winner of a state, even if it’s with 45 percent of the votes cast, is given a bonus number of delegates, with the rest distributed by vote margin.
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