Healthy demand for commodities and more benign financial conditions help. But they do little to fix underlying structural problems that need sweeping reform
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskYet during last year’s election campaign, few thought Lula’s second stint as president would be as lucky. He inherits an economy hardly richer than the one he bequeathed his successor, Dilma Rousseff . Under her, the country plunged into a deep recession; her impeachment over a corruption scandal tarnished Lula’s Workers’ Party .
And on those counts, too, it has looked a bad time for Lula to retake the presidency. This year has seemed destined to be a hard one for much of the global economy, as many countries pushed up interest rates to combat high inflation, and as China’s economy continued to sputter under a property-market crash and harsh covid restrictions. Even recently, many economists were warning that a global recession might be coming.
These better prospects seem to set a floor for commodity prices. High prices for oil, soyabeans and other Brazilian exports help explain growth over the past two years that was faster than many might think.rose by nearly 5% in 2021, and by almost 3% in 2022. Commodity prices have fallen from the peaks reached in the months following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but remain well above pre-pandemic levels.
That is still well above the central bank’s target rate for 2023 of 3.25%, and core inflation, excluding more volatile items, has eased more slowly. But declines in Brazilian inflation, combined with easier financial conditions globally, may eventually allow Brazil’s central bank to cut its policy rate, painfully high at 13.75%. The central bank’s aggressive rate-rise campaign, which began in 2021, helped restrain inflation and maintain markets’ confidence.
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