The Dodgers may have a better record but FanGraphs likes the Astros' odds to win the World Series.
Houston Astros Alex Bregman celebrates his home run with Yordan Alvarez against Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen during the first inning of a game at Minute Maid Park on Friday, Sept. 30, 2022 in Houston.and your regular season production means very little once you get to the final week of October.
Still, based off their regular season success and the construction of their roster, the Astros will enter the postseason as the favorites to win their second World Series, at least according to FanGraphs,The Astros are going to finish with the second-best record in franchise history and, along with the Yankees, will have a bye into the American League Division Series, which begins Oct. 11.
The story is the same in the National League with the Braves and Dodgers — the team teams with byes past the Wild Card round — having a 15.4% and 15.1% chance to win it all, respectively, according to FanGraphs.to win the American League West easily, but had them picked to finish with slightly worse records than the Yankees and Blue Jays. At the time, the site gave the Astros a 9.8% chance to win it all, which was behind only the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Braves.
From a purely analytical standpoint, the Astros' odds are better based solely off the tougher competition in the National League. The American League is likely going to have just four teams — Astros, Yankees, Blue Jays and Guardians — with at least 90 wins, though the Mariners could get exactly 90 if they win their final three games against the Tigers. By comparison, the National League could have three 100-win teams — compared to the American League's two — and possibly five with 90.
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