Armenia’s ‘99.999% reliance’ on Moscow for security appears a mistake after invasion of Ukraine
Russian President Vladimir Putin sits between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev during talks in Sochi in 2022. Photograph: Sergei Bobylov/Sputnik/AFPdisputed territory of Nagorno-KarabakhMoscow’s post-Soviet strategy has often been to stoke conflicts to weaken its near neighbours, creating crises in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia.
Refugees cross the border from Nagorno-Karabakh in the wake of the Azerbaijani attack last week. Photograph: Alain Jocard/AFP Baku had already formed an effective alliance with Turkey that provided the Bayraktar TB2 drones that helped it win the last war in 2020, a 44-day autumn conflict in which Azerbaijan took control of the skies, bombing Armenia’s Soviet-era tanks and its allies in Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan’s latest attack last week on Nagorno-Karabakh lasted only 24 hours. During the assault, a number of Russian peacekeepers were killed by Baku’s forces. Aliyev rang the Kremlin to apologise the next day, and the matter appears largely closed without Moscow making any significant complaint. Baku, Azerbaijan's capital. The Caucasian nation's fuel riches have given it the upper hand in a long-running conflict with Armenia. Photograph: Tofik Babyev/AFP
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