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Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads far-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Sunday's first-round vote, with polling suggesting a possible October runoff. The campaign has focused on religion, corruption, economic concerns, social welfare and Brazil's international alliances.
The neck and neck presidential battle between Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva and his main ultra-right challenger Flávio Bolsonaro has a familiar feel to it, another bitter trial of strength between the country’s political big beasts, between left and far-right, rich and poor, and the country’s booming Evangelical and Catholic communities.
Bolsonaro’s father, ex-president Jair, is serving 27 years in prison for leading a coup attempt to try to overturn his 2022 election defeat to Lula. He is also seen as a proxy for Donald Trump who cited “politically motivated persecution” of the father in slapping a 40 per cent duty on Brazilian goods. Brazil votes in the first round of its presidential election on Sunday, with 80-year-old Lula facing 45-year-old Flavio in a 13-strong field.
The latest poll puts Lula ahead by 39 per cent to 34 per cent, but neck and neck in a likely October 25th run-off. The final weeks have been dominated by attempts by Bolsonaro to deny what he termed an online “ big lie” that he intends to remove popular Our Lady of Aparecida as the country’s patron saint. The Bolsonaros had previously claimed Lula intended to close down Evangelical churches.
Lula, with strong support among Catholics, has denied being the source of the claim, pointedly insisting that “as long as I am president of the republic, no one will make a mockery of Our Lady of Aparecida. ” The implication of Flavio in multiple corruption scandals has also been a major theme, while voters have been frustrated with the cost of living, and determined to defend the important Bolsa Família, Lula’s major anti-poverty subsidy to poor families.
The election is being closely watched in Europe amid fears that Lula’s defeat could jeopardise the important EU-Mercosur regional trade agreement and pull Brazil back into Trump’s political orbit. Lula’s victory would also be seen among European socialists as an important sign of the resilience of the left in a continent increasingly dominated by far-right clones of Bolsonaro.
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