The technical challenges inherent in the process were underestimated, and May’s red lines added to the complications
Northern Ireland is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland is also an EU member. All parties want to avoid a hard border in Ireland, but the EU insists on a safety net to ensure an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland in the event that the UK leaves the EU without a deal.
May’s withdrawal agreement, which requires parliamentary approval, has been defeated three times in “meaningful votes” in the House of Commons. There is no majority for May’s proposal, nor for any of the options that have since been put to the vote. May now has little control over parliament, the Conservative Party or even her own cabinet. It is hard to predict how long she will remain prime minister.
May is having talks with the Labour Party to try to secure a parliamentary majority for a new proposal. But this process inspires little confidence. It is not in Labour’s interest to rescue the Conservative Party from a crisis of its own making. A permanent split in the Conservative Party is also possible. A second referendum or a general election may be necessary to achieve a final Brexit decision.
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