Bulls' Post-All-Star Offensive Slide Fueled by Shooting Regression

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Bulls' Post-All-Star Offensive Slide Fueled by Shooting Regression
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The Bulls have been one of the NBAs best shooting teams all season, but have taken a step back since the All-Star break.

Donovan is right in a few respects. The Bulls’ shot profile hasn’t changed much in the last 15 games compared to the first 59. Before the All-Star break, they took 25.3 restricted area shots per game. Since, they’ve averaged 25.2. Their midrange attempts per game average has risen by 1.6 , and their 3-point attempts are down from 29.9 per game to 26.6. But they’ve been the midrange-happiest and most-3-pointer-averse team in the league all season.

This was especially true of the team’s primary offensive engine, DeRozan. He is shooting 45.7 percent since the All-Star break — a respectable figure — but just 42 percent from midrange after converting a scorching 50.2 percent of his midrange looks in the 59 games prior. Ball’s prolonged absence cannot be ignored, either. He is not only converting a career-high 42.3 percent of his 3-point tries on a high volume of attempts this season, he’s also the team’s leading corner 3 taker, shooting 48.4 percent on 1.8 attempts per contest. His passing, too, brings a connective dynamic to the offense.

But, more alarmingly, the Bulls’ potential assists average has dropped from 46 to 39.5 in the last 15 games. Potential assists is one of Donovan’s preferred statistical measures of offensive health, as it measures passes that directly lead to shot opportunities, regardless of whether said shot converts.

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