Here’s how we’re betting Saturday’s contest between the Chiefs and Jaguars, which kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Chiefs vs. Jaguars prediction and analysis
If you’re handicapping who’s going to win outright, you’d have every reason to back Kansas City in this spot. The Chiefs finished the season ranked fourth in DVOA and scoring differential, winning 10 of their last 11 games to clinch the top spot in the AFC and earn a week off between Week 18 and their playoff opener on Saturday.
The Jaguars were mighty impressive this season en route to their first division title in five years, but they simply haven’t reached those same heights. They ranked 13th in DVOA and needed to rip off five straight wins just to reach the postseason, where they fell behind by 27 points before mounting one of the most impressive comebacks in league history.
Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence celebrates the Jaguars’ wild-card win in Jacksonville on Jan. 14, 2023.For as prolific as Mahomes and Co. have been in the win-loss column, they’ve been hit or miss as big favorites. Over the last three seasons, the former MVP winner is just 11-18 against the spread when favored by seven or more points and just 1-2 ATS in such games in the postseason.
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