China’s recovery might be a bit less than meets the eye | opinion
Are all Chinese economic recoveries, like Tolstoy’s happy families, alike? Many observers these days seem to think so. The recent boom in metals prices, for example, reflects a confidence in the market that this year’s acceleration in China’s growth rate will cast the same benign shadow over the global economy as earlier big recoveries have done. But that may not be the case.
China’s economic performance in 2023 will be different in the sense that this year’s acceleration in growth will overwhelmingly be just the result of the country ending its lockdown approach to managing the spread of Covid. So, the economy will enjoy what is probably best described as a spontaneous recovery which will see the biggest effects on services and consumption .
Although there will not be as much of a pivot towards looser macroeconomic policy as in the past, there is a different kind of pivot taking place these days: one from ideology towards pragmatism. Beijing is clearly less focused — for the time being — on “common prosperity” or the.
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