Cliff Taylor: Seriousness of Trump threat to Irish economy may take some time to emerge

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Cliff Taylor: Seriousness of Trump threat to Irish economy may take some time to emerge
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US election: Tariffs and corporation tax are key areas to watch when calculating risk to Irish economy of Republican presidential victory

Calculating how serious these are is complicated by trying to judge what Trump might actually do – as opposed to what he said he would do. And what he might be able to do, given the constraints posed by the, though if the Republicans get control of the House of Representatives as well as the Senate this will give him more leeway.

A key Trump policy to address this issue is tariffs, amounting – he has said – to 60 per cent on imports coming from China and 10 to 20 per cent on goods coming from elsewhere, including, presumably, Ireland. The spin is that this will protect industry operating in the US – the reality is that it would hurt the American economy and push up inflation.

However, control of Congress will be a vital factor in whether and how Trump can progress his tax agenda. The US president has some leeway in terms of implementing tariffs without Congressional assent – how much is unclear – but issues like corporation tax come down to budget agreements hammered out with Congress.

Senior Irish sources are divided on the extent of this risk. “We have been here before and the sky did not fall in,” said one, referring back to the fears when Trump was first elected president. Others express more concern about the tax risks and the longer-term implications in terms of attracting investment here.

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