With communities still dealing with the trauma of Storm Babet, it has prompted the question: should Met Éireann have issued a red alert rather than an orange one?
Boots chemist being cleaned up after being damaged by flooding in Midleton, Co Cork, during Storm Babet. Photograph: Michael Mac Sweeney/Provision
With extreme weather events, it is never just one thing. One additional contributor to turbulence is an atmospheric circulation pattern known as the North Atlantic Oscillation. This is “an index” reflecting the difference in pressure between low pressure anchored over Iceland and high pressure over the Azores. When the pressure difference is high, the westerly airflow over the Atlantic strengthens and a series of storms are directed over northern Europe.
The extent of “climate shift” is the main factor in forcing a rethink by Met Éireann of its weather warnings, according to the national meteorological service’s chief forecaster Eoin Sherlock. The latest analysis of climate averages over a 30-year period since 1991 was as predicted but indicated the need for threshold adjustments, particularly on wind , and temperature with an increase of 0.7 of a degree corresponding to 7 per cent more rainfall.
Speaking to The Irish Times, Sherlock acknowledged the risks of information overload post-Covid and of too much “cry wolf” but, in all instances, Met Éireann follows best international practice. There is a scientific basis for the thresholds, while it is ultimately up to the public to obey them. A yellow warning might be important to a painter-decorator working outside and “to everybody else it’s a soft day”.
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