Which Senate toss-up is the closest? Will we know who controls the chamber on Election Day? What sleeper race should we be watching? Nightly reports 👇
, POLITICO’s national political reporter covering Senate campaigns, about what races we should watch, what might shock her and what she’s itching to know right now. This conversation has been edited.Nevada, based on a series of public polls, appears to be the closest. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican Adam Laxalt are truly locked in a dead-heat. We see the term"margin-of-error race" used for a number of contests right now, but Nevada seems to be legitimately tied.
Yes, the candidates there are neck-and-neck, and some recent polls have shown the Democratic incumbent, Cortez Masto, with a narrow edge. But Nevada is certainly not an exception to the GOP momentum we’re seeing nationwide at the end of the midterm cycle — undecided voters breaking for Republicans, people concerned way more about the daily cost of living than issues that can seem more theoretical, like abortion rights and threats to democracy.
Republican operatives for the last week have sounded pretty bullish about Georgia. The latest Herschel Walker abortion allegation just didn’t seem to stick. Republican voters had already accepted Walker was a flawed candidate, and the race is in many ways a contest of ground game in a purple state that has way fewer swing voters than Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona, etc. The GOP thinks they can avoid a runoff. Meanwhile, Democratic Sen.
Georgia. Pennsylvania is another race that attracted tons of media attention this cycle, but the Walker-Warnock contest is a race that always was close, and if Walker wins, it’s a clear referendum on the Democratic power the state selected in 2020. If Republican Senate nominee Mehmet Oz loses by a little in Pennsylvania, he still will have closed the gap dramatically from where he was this summer.
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