To avoid perilous misunderstanding, the two sides should talk more
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskAmerican spooks play down what the balloon—or weather-observation craft, as China’s government insists—discovered as it floated near military sites, including a base in Montana with Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles. But they say that was because they tracked it closely and ensured no sensitive activities or communications took place within its range.
The odds of more incidents like this are high. China may retaliate, for example by seizing an American ocean-survey drone—as it did in 2016 in the South China Sea, where the two countries’ warships and fighters operate in close proximity. Chinese fury with America following a visit to Taiwan in August by Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of America’s House of Representatives, has resulted in ever more dangerous sabre-rattling by China’s armed forces around the island, which China claims.
It is therefore crucial that cool heads prevail. The 20th century offers some lessons. In 1972 America and the Soviet Union managed to reach agreement on avoiding dangerous military encounters. In 1955 President Dwight Eisenhower proposed that Soviet spyplanes be allowed to fly over America, and vice versa, so that the two countries could be more assured of each other’s intentions. The Russians baulked at the idea.
Today far too few mechanisms for avoiding escalation exist. China’s now-abandoned zero-covid policy meant it avoided face-to-face discussions for years. As president Mr Biden has met Xi Jinping, China’s leader, only once, during a20 meeting in November in Bali. As an American official said then: “It is critical to build a floor for the relationship and ensure that there are rules of the road that bound our competition.
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