Cryptocurrency predictions site PolymarketHQ is accepting bets on if Russia will use a nuclear weapon before 2023.
on “Will Russia use a nuclear weapon before 2023?” following an escalation in tensions between Russia and Ukraine and increased calls by Russian authorities to utilize such weapons.the site was fined $1.4 million and ordered to cease offering noncompliant markets by the Commodity Futures Trading CommissionThe current odds being offered on"Yes" on the nuclear weapon question are about 17 to 1, meaning you'd win $17 for every $1 you bet.
Polymarket wrote that it considered the prediction market on this topic “a public good, in order to provide clarity to society on one of the most pressing issues of the 21st century.” Polymarket detailed that “this market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the Russian Federation detonates a nuclear device in an offensive capacity by Dec. 31, 2022, 11:59:59 p.m. ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to ‘No.’” It added that to meet the “Yes” criteria, the detonation of a nuclear device must be in an offensive capacity, must not be a test and must either be claimed by the Russian Federation or widely accepted to be from the Russian Federation.
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