Whatever the Israeli investigation concludes, it will harden battle lines
Lord Cameron’s increasingly urgent warnings that Israel’s conduct of war is making life difficult for its allies is a sign of anxiety about how the conflict is unfolding.
These civilian deaths graphically prove that the UK’s aims are becoming harder for the government to balance. It seeks to be a staunch ally of Israel, fighting a terrorist enemy in Hamas. It also wants to support a rare democracy in the Middle East, surrounded by autocratic regimes and outright enemies.
Either way, things can go badly wrong from here. Israel clearly feels that the demands by Lord Cameron for a very speedy inquiry are overstepping the boundaries of a country outside the conflict. One of its most senior diplomats, who has had historically good relations with the Conservatives and Cameron personally, vents fury at this “imperious tone”.
The keystone to changing facts on the ground is a shift in the operations of the war and their scope – and that is unlikely in the short term. The same goes for a change of leader in Israel, which, while more possible now, is only likely after an election, and that would take months. On LBC today, Sir Alan said that the Conservative Friends of Israel group was “doing the bidding of Netanyahu”, and called for Lord Pickles and Lord Polak to be excluded from the Lords. In a later interview, he said Tory MPs – including Suella Braverman, Tom Tugendhat and Michael Gove – were failing to support international law by not condemning illegal settlements.
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