Extraordinary national accounts underline challenge CSO faces measuring health of the economy
The latest national accounts from the Central Statistics Office show nothing as clearly as how difficult it is to get a handle on the overall economy from official data. This is no fault of the CSO – it is part of the ongoing story of the impact of the activities of major international companies on a small, open economy. So what should we conclude from the extraordinary ups and downs of the latest release, which covers 2023 and the first quarter of this year.
The shortcoming of the GDP measure and Ireland’s data are well known, however, affected in large by factors such as contract manufacturing – which are goods produced elsewhere but counted in Irish data as they are organised by Irish multinational subsidiaries. And there was what appears a once-off fall back in pharma exports from exceptional levels.
This modified domestic demand figure was 1 per cent higher in the first quarter of this year than the previous three months, and 2.2 per cent up year on year. So this suggests that the domestic economy continues to grow at a decent pace into this year, fuelled by a strong labour market. According to O’Leary, “with household balance sheets in good shape, employment and earnings continuing to grow and inflation falling, further growth can be expected in the coming twelve months.
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