Don’t bank on a big drop in interest rates this year

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Don’t bank on a big drop in interest rates this year
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Economic data has left analysts expecting just two more ECB rate cuts in 2024

The ECB, led by president Christine Lagarde, is only expected to cut rates twice more this year. Photograph: KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP via Getty Images

This means, he said, that it is going to take more time for the ECB to have enough data to assess whether its expectation for inflation to return to target by around the end of next year remains on track. Given this level of doubt, market analysts expect that the ECB may be guided by a combination of official data, much of it available quarterly, and updated estimates from its own staff, which are provided every three months. So, according to Barry “it’s not a coincidence that market interest rate expectations very much align with this timetable, with markets priced for two more moves this year, in September and December,” which are the dates new ECB staff projections will be provided.

For now, however, the expectation remains that there will be two more reductions – probably of a quarter point each – over the balance of this year and some further cuts in 2025. As Simon Barry points out, the current level of interest rates remains high and so even if there are further reductions, the ECB can be confident that they will still act to hold down inflation.

First-time buyers, movers or those whose current fixed term is running out have traditionally opted for fixed rate products in recent years, though more have gone variable this year in the hope that offers would improve. Many have been rewarded as an outbreak of competition which started around March and the first ECB cut led to a series of reductions.

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