'Dialogue and negotiation, whether scripted or freewheeling, are essential to determine whether overreach is hardbacked into Xi’s regime or he might be persuaded to moderate his policies during his third term,' writes Susan L. Shirk
Winning an unprecedented third term could embolden Xi to act even more aggressively. So what should the world do to prevent that? And more specifically, how should the U.S. react?Xi wants China to be respected as a global power, as well it should be, by virtue of its large and talented population, geographic scale, centrality in Asia, and unique history.
All of this offers American diplomacy an opening. Both sides have allowed lines of communication to atrophy in recent years. China failed to take advantage of a new President in the White House to restore access for American officials. Our Ambassador in Beijing, veteran diplomat Nicholas Burns, remains unable to meet anyone higher than a Vice Foreign Minister. Without channels for engagement, we simply don’t know whether or not Xi Jinping’s regime is influenceable.
Second, it’s too soon to give up on diplomacy. Chinese leaders have recalibrated their policies in the past. Xi still appears motivated by a desire for international respect. Only after attempting a serious diplomatic effort should Americans conclude that the only option is to degrade and defeat China.
As a practical manner, we’ll want to deploy carrots and sticks that can be calibrated up and down to to nudge China in a positive direction. For example, rather than starting by imposing sanctions, give China a chance to avoid them by adjusting its conduct.
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