Polls for the primary contest in 2024 currently put Ron DeSantis within a whisker of the once formidable Donald Trump
that is expected to play out between Donald Trump, the former president, and Ron DeSantis, Florida’s ultra-conservative governor, is already making headlines. Perhaps that is because of the party’s unexpectedly poor showing in the midterm elections in November. Or maybe it is due to the lacklustre performance of candidates endorsed by Donald Trump, who has said he will run again in 2024.
Polls for the primary contest in 2024 currently put Mr DeSantis within a whisker of the once formidable Mr Trump .’s average of national polls finds that 42% of Republican primary voters would cast ballots for Mr Trump if the election were held today. On average, 37% said the same for Mr DeSantis. That is a significant change from just three months ago. In September Mr Trump enjoyed the support of 50% of Republican and Republican-leaning independents, double that of Mr DeSantis.
But our analysis also finds much uncertainty in the polls. Surveys reveal varying degrees of support for either candidate depending on how questions are asked or on how the pollster is contacting respondents. Online surveys, for instance, have tended to be more favourable to Mr Trump than those conducted over the phone.
Another obvious fact ought to muffle the cheers from Mr Trump’s opponents: there is still a long way to go.’s analysis of polls from previous presidential primaries finds that only half of the polls conducted this far in advance of a party’s nominating convention correctly identified the eventual winner. Most pollsters taking surveys in December 2014, for example, did not even include Mr Trump in their lists of plausible candidates for the 2016 primaries.
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