World Meteorological Organization forecasts an El Niño event with high probability between June and August 2026, likely to persist through November with near or above 90% certainty. Scientists warn it will exacerbate global warming and extreme weather, potentially making 2027 a record-breaking year. The UN urges countries to treat it as an urgent climate warning, as the last El Niño contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record and exceeding the 1.5C climate threshold.
El Nino is a natural phenomenon where the warming of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean increases global temperaturesis 80 per cent more likely to happen according to experts.
World Meteorological Organisation scientists warn of El Nino, which sees the warming of sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean push up global temperatures. This can reportedly contribute to human-driven climate change and trigger even more extreme weather. An El Nino event this year is likely to take place between June and August 2026, according to the WMO forecast models. Probabilities that it will continue until at least November is near or above 90%, the scientists also found.
The UN said countries should treat the potential event as “an urgent climate warning” as the world already faces devastating impacts from increasingly severe weather, as fossil fuel pollution continues to drive global warming. While some uncertainty remains about the El Nino event’s peak strength and timing, the forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate and possibly strong.
It comes after the last El Nino event contributed to soaring temperatures that saw 2024 become the warmest year on record. The world’s average temperature also exceeded the key climate threshold of 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average for the first time that year. If the climate phenomenon occurs this year, it will increase the chances of 2027 becoming the next record-breaking year, UN scientists have warned.
In a video statement on Tuesday, UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said: “The science is clear: El Nino is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.
"Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable and delivering early warning systems for all.
”Sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific, the area used as a monitoring reference, was approaching El Nino thresholds in late April to mid-May, according to observations from different platforms used by WMO. The scientists say these increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific. The temperatures exceeding 6C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat.
Another climate model that focuses on atmospheric conditions is also consistent with developing El Nino conditions. WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo said: “We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall, and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean.
The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors. Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities. ” The WMO said its updates are based on a consensus of models from its global producing centres, experts from national meteorological and hydrological services, and climate prediction centres around the world.
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