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Brussels sees a narrow window to advance EU expansion before a bumper year of elections in 2027 across four major European powers potentially shifts the political balance and closes the door on new members joining the bloc.
A bumper year of elections in 2027 across four of Europe's biggest powers could see the window of opportunity for progress on EU expansion slam shut.
Brussels sees a chance to make real progress on the next expansion of the bloc for the first time in years, but missing this opportunity could mean it does not come around again for a long time. The upcoming national votes across major European states could bring a tectonic shift in the balance of power inside the EU, which is why Brussels wants to rush several big decisions, including the bloc's next seven-year budget and enlargement policy.
However, centrist governments remain wary that surging far-right and populist forces will tap into voters' anxiety about letting new members into the EU. Montenegro is hurrying to complete the remaining chapters of internal reforms that the EU sets as the precondition for membership, and the small Balkan front-runner hopes to finish that work in the coming months.
Ukraine is at the start of what is a years-long process, having been permitted to open two of the six clusters of negotiating chapters and wanting the go-ahead to kick off the rest. Every step on a candidate country's journey needs to be okayed by all existing member states, and the delicate political arithmetic involving 27 different governments is forever in flux.
Hungary had been a major blocker on EU enlargement until the populist Viktor Orban was displaced by Peter Magyar in a landslide electoral victory this April. Magyar is patching up relations between Brussels and Budapest and has assented to Ukraine moving a few rungs up the accession ladder, but slowly.
The Western Balkans as a whole ticking off reforms has meant there has been more movement recently than any time in the last 25 years, according to European commissioner for EU enlargement Marta Kos, who spoke on Friday. The commission wants greater safeguards that would apply to new entrants to make sure countries continue to respect the rule of law once they are inside the tent.
European leaders should make a greater effort to allay citizens' fears about expanding the union again, Kos told reporters in Dublin Castle, where European affairs ministers were talking about enlargement on Friday. One senior EU official captured the urgency by noting that elections are unpredictable and campaigns change things, adding that leaders have just got to get on with the work that is here today.
There is a push to open the remaining clusters governing Ukraine and Moldova's negotiations and perhaps even conclude talks with Montenegro, all by the end of this year. The top table of Europe's political leaders could start to look a lot different beyond that point
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