Agency also cautions that high costs and low confidence will reduce companies’ incentives to invest
It forecast that Gross Domestic Product and modified domestic demand, the two most commonly used measures of economic growth here, would grow by 3.8 per cent and by 0.9 per cent respectively in 2023, down from 10.1 per cent and 8 per cent this year. These forecasts were subject to downside risks given the uncertainties surrounding Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Inflation is expected to average 8.4 per cent this year, before falling to 7.2 per cent next year and to 2.9 per cent in 2024. While Irish trade links with Russia are modest, the OECD noted that the State had become an international hub for special purpose vehicles engaged in aircraft leasing and that the war would have a sizeable impact on the Irish aircraft leasing industry, which manages over €100 billion in assets.
While high inflation was putting pressure on the Government to spend more, a new 5 per cent spending rule was an attempt to make “spending less pro-cyclical”.
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