Flying has been a disaster during the pandemic, but this holiday season could become a full-on airline apocalypse. By g_allon.
As information emerges about the Omicron coronavirus variant, travel bans, testing requirements, and flight restrictions are injecting
Each link in the chain of operating a flight is critical to the success of the whole operation, since every movement is what is known as a dependent event. In some businesses, different parts of production can operate independently. To create an advertisement, you could write the copy, draw the art, and buy the billboard and magazine space at the same time. If one thing is delayed, the rest of the operation can continue while the lagging department catches up.
But if all flights using the same plane are linked, this cannot be the case. If a flight arrives ahead of time because of a tailwind, for example, it still must wait until the next scheduled departure time; the airline cannot use this excess time. And when a delay occurs because of a headwind or congestion on the tarmac, subsequent flights using that plane will also be delayed. The tighter the system is, the more amplified the small disruptions become.
This surge in demand to near pre-pandemic levels presents a serious issue for airlines. When a flight is canceled, the passengers need to be reassigned. When the load factor was near pandemic lows — or even near 70% — there were typically excess seats on other flights to absorb the rerouted passengers. But if flights are already full, it's hard to reassign passengers whose flights were canceled without disrupting those whose flights were not.
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