From now on, don’t believe anything that anyone says about the budget

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From now on, don’t believe anything that anyone says about the budget
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Everyone is spinning a yarn ahead of October 1st — as Roy Keane might say, ‘they are only doing their jobs’

Paschal Donohoe, Minister for Public Expenditure and Jack Chambers, Minister for Finance, at the Exchequer Returns presentation, in Dublin. Soaring corporate tax receipts will increase budget expectations.

Warnings of the arrival of the “wolf” in the shape of a possible collapse in corporate tax receipts have been made since about 2016. During that time revenue from this source has expanded close to fivefold. The only credible conclusion is that Ireland is exposed to multinational fortunes and decisions on a range of fronts — tax, jobs, spending — but trying to calibrate this is probably a waste of time.

In this context whether permanent spending increases by, say, 6.5 per cent next year or 7.5 per cent next year may not make much difference. What is important, however, is that this will add to the big spending increases we have seen in recent years and the cumulative rise is now very significant.showed, for example, that health spending here is now high by international standards — 28 per cent above the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average.

Repeating these measures is not justified. Less well-off households need permanent supports, not temporary handouts. Housing costs for refugees are now ongoing and not “once-offs”. The bulk of people are doing fine and do not need extra energy credits or double weeks of child benefit.

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