No non-Democrat is going to win statewide office in California without garnering significant support from Democratic voters.
Newsom, who first won his gubernatorial race by more than 20 percentage points in 2018, then defeated a 2021 recall attempt by a similar margin, is leading Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle 58% to 31% inThe vote breakdown by political party strongly suggests Newsom's lead is insurmountable. Newsom is leading independent voters 55% to 35%, which is very bad news for Dahle.
Newsom's approval rating is down slightly from May , but that figure has been remarkably stable in PPIC polls conducted since the start of 2021. In the past two years of PPIC polls, his approval rating has always been somewhere between 52% and 56%. The PPIC poll, conducted among 1,705 residents between Sept. 2 and Sept. 11, also surveyed three of the state's biggest ballot measures. It found that"yes" on Proposition 1, the measure that amends the state constitution to include a right to abortion, is leading"no" 69% to 25%, and Proposition 27, the measure that would
is likely fail, with"no" leading"yes" 54% to 34%. The pollster did not ask respondents about Proposition 26, the measure that would legalize in-person sports gambling at race tracks and casinos owned by Native American tribes.
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