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The article discusses the global shift in demographic concerns from fears of overpopulation fifty years ago to current anxieties about declining birth rates and ageing societies. It highlights Ireland's fertility rate trends over decades and compares them with EU partners, noting Ireland still has one of the highest fertility rates in the EU at 1.5. The piece examines the implications of ageing populations for Europe and the US, the potential of immigration to offset workforce decline, and the limited effectiveness of financial incentives like Singapore's recent $55,000 payment scheme to boost birth rates.
Fifty years ago, people worried that the world’s population was rising at an unsustainable rate. China’s one-child policy was the most extreme response. Today’s concerns are different – are societies producing enough babies to be sustainable?
In developed economies, the number of children born to each woman has been falling for decades, and this trend is now widespread across most of the world. By 2100, the world’s population will be significantly lower than it is today. Ireland’s fertility remained high for a long time, and was slower to fall than in EU partners. In 1979, Irish women had, on average, 3.2 children, compared to the UK’s two.
Over the 1980s, our rate fell rapidly, reaching 2.1 in 1990, just enough to replace the population. It now stands at 1.5. While below the replacement rate it is, nevertheless, one of the highest fertility rates in the EU .
John FitzGerald: My wife was sceptical, but retrofitting our 1970s semi with a heat pump was a smart moveWith fewer children being born, Europe and the US are ageing rapidly, even with significant immigration, largely by working-age adults. Ageing societies mean a fall in the number at work for every person who is retired, and a growing requirement to fund additional health and care needs. Some countries worry that ageing populations will reduce productivity and innovation.
Not Ireland, however. We benefit from highly educated and dynamic immigrant workers who boost our productive capacity. To counteract population ageing, some countries have tried incentives to encourage more births. Last month, Singapore announced payments of $55,000 for families to have a child.
However, such schemes have proven ineffective elsewhere: decisions to have children and on family size are about much more than finance. Nobel prize-winning economist Claudia Goldin is one of the leading researchers on why births are falling globally. Her findings suggest it is intimately tied up with the changing position of women in society. With rising educational attainment, the opportunities for women in the labour market have dramatically changed in most places .
Ireland’s marriage bar, which caught my wife, thankfully ended more than 50 years ago. Better education and career opportunities are leading Irish women to delay having children. Our average age at time of first birth is 31.2, compared to an EU figure of just under 30. The difference possibly reflects Ireland’s housing shortage.
Without a permanent home, starting a family seems risky. This may explain why Dublin’s fertility rate is 1.2 compared to the national average of 1.5, and a rate of 1.8 in the Border region. Starting a family later feeds into lower completed family size. Not surprisingly, Goldin finds that in countries where men take a more equal share of housework and childcare, fertility is higher.
In the low-fertility nations of Spain, Italy, Japan and Korea, women’s unpaid work per day is about 2.5 to three hours more than men’s. This gap is lower, about 0.75 to 1.25 hours, in the higher-fertility nations of Sweden, Norway and the Netherlands. Northern Europe also has much better public provision of childcare. If governments want to raise birth rates, spending on quality public childcare is a good place to start.
Childfree: ‘I used to fear middle age, that I’d become invisible, unripe, unattractive, overlooked. But so far it’s fabulous’ Goldin singles out male attitudes and behaviour as a key to higher fertility, saying “the more that men can credibly signal they will be dependable ‘dads’ and not disappointing ‘duds’, the higher will be the birth rate”.not only involves sharing the work of childcare more evenly, but also for couples to develop compatible career paths.
In that light, the US Republicans’ war onEven where men play their part, mothers on average work fewer hours than men, with many working part-time to juggle work and child rearing. Most of the ensuing gender pay gap in the US is due to this effect of motherhood on women’s work hours. One US study found that mothers’ earnings were 37 per cent lower than fathers, even 10 years after their first child was born.
Goldin describes jobs in the legal or business sectors, often requiring a personal relationship with clients, as time-greedy, resulting in serious penalties for motherhood. Where the work is shared by a team, rather than falling on the individual, the penalties for women are less. In the US pharmaceutical sector, where team working is the norm, the gender pay gap for women scientists has almost disappeared – this is another argument for young people to pursue Stem careers.
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Fertility Rate Population Ageing Immigration Ireland Demographics Birth Incentives
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