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Create your own coalition here in Harry McGee’s seat prediction for Election 2020 GE2020
In addition, Laois and Offaly combine into one constituency, with five seats overall rather than six.Fine Gael had three seats out of four in the last election, by virtue of the fact that outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seán Barrett was a TD there.
. Kildare South will be an effective three-seater , as outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl is automatically re-elected there.FINE GAEL Fine Gael leader and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar during the RTÉ Prime Time leaders’ debate. Photograph: Tom Honan.This would be a technical gain as the party has no seat here after losing the byelection for Frances Fitzgerald’s former seat. Emer Higgins should safely take one seat out of four and the party might even consider itself in with a shout for a second seat, although that is a long shot.This is another technical gain as there is a vacant seat. Fine Gael has no seat there since Dara Murphy’s resignation in December. Colm Burke should easily win one seat for the party in the four-seat constituency.The target is seat held by Independent Séamus Healy. Fine Gael has gone out on a limb by picking two new and relatively unknown candidates. It had a full quota in 2016 but terrible vote management and candidate selection lost it its seat. The party’s strong local election performance should provide it with the basis for a seat here at the expense of an Independent. Was it a mistake by Mary Newman Julian not to contest the local elections, unlike her running mate Garret Ahearn? Could they repeat the mistakes of 2016? The mood has darkened considerably here.There is an extra seat in this constituency. Fianna Fáíl already has two and is unlikely to win three. Sinn Féin has traditionally been not as strong in Cavan as in Monaghan. But the surge in the poll now means that Pauline Tully could edge out Fine Gael’s TP O’Reilly for the last seat. This would be a big body blow.The target is a Fianna Fáil seat. A one-point increase needed in vote share compared with 2016. John Paul O’Shea ran as an Independent in 2016 and did well. Now under the Fine Gael banner will run Fianna Fáíl close.Target is a Sinn Féin seat. A two percentage-point increase in vote share is required compared with 2016. Again a close battle with Fianna Fáil looked in prospect to topple a precarious Sinn Féin seat. Pa O’Driscoll is based in the northern end of the constituency and while the teacher has a high profile and is a strong campaigner, he might struggle for transfers in the latter counts. On balance, it’s hard to see Sinn Féin not holding the seat, even though the party is not showing as strongly in Munster.is the target. A five percentage-point increase in vote share required compared with 2016. Neale Richmond will need to put in a huge performance to create one of the shocks of the day by taking out Ross. And now, it is not only Ross but also Fianna Fáil’s Shay Brennan he has to worry about.The target is a Sinn Féin seat. A five-point increase is required. The Sinn Féin seat is no longer in such danger. Fine Gael’s candidate Michael Kennelly comes from a well-known Listowel GAA family. Fianna Fáil looks marginally stronger though after the local elections but there is a neater geographical divide between Kennelly and sitting TD Brendan Griffin. May be moot now if Pa Daly can harness all of the Martin Ferris vote.The target is a Labour Party seat. Another ding-dong battle between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael for a vulnerable seat, this time the one vacated by Labour’s. It will boil down to be a bout between two Longford candidates. Fianna Fáíl is stronger in the constituency overall but Fine Gael is stronger in Longford (it won 39 per cent of the vote in last year’s local elections. Its candidate Micheál Carrigy has a high profile. A bellwether constituency. Don’t rule out Sinn Féin.A five-point gain is required to take a seat off Seán Canney. This will be a local battle, between the outgoing Tuam Independent and Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil rivals from the same area. Fine Gael’s Peter Roche performed strongly in the local elections but Fianna Fáil had a big day in Tuam, taking four out of seven. Again very, very tight. But on opinion poll evidence you would have to favour Fianna Fáil, or even Canney holding.A two-point increase is required. The target is Independent Peter Fitzpatrick. Fine Gael has only one seat here after Fitzpatrick’s resignation from the party in 2018. Dundalk-based councillor John McGahon will be one of five jousting for the last seat and might just come up short.The target is a Labour seat. A five-point rise on 2016 is required. Others, Fianna Fáil and the Greens, look stronger in the battle for the final seat with Jan O’Sullivan.to Fianna Fáil/Greens. A certainty. Fine Gael holds three seats out of four because outgoing ceann comhairle Seán Barrett was automatically returned in 2016. He is not standing this time. The party won 25 per cent of the vote in 2016. Now it’s looking at the dismal scenario of returning only one seat here.to Fianna Fáíl. Probability is high. Noel Rock is a very doughty campaigner but he is up against it this time. He narrowly saw off Fianna Fáil’s Paul McAuliffe in 2016 but his rival is in a much stronger position now, and Fianna Fáil had a very strong local election here. Sinn Féin has been on the slide here but it would be hard to see Dessie Ellis’s fall being so dramatic as to lose.to Greens or Fianna Fáil. Probability is medium to high. Like Clare the party managed to retain two seats with only 24 per cent of the vote, and relied heavily on Labour transfers. Its two TDs, Seán Kyne and Hildegarde Naughton, are high profile but would need to increase the party’s share of the vote against parties whose support levels are rising.to the Labour Party. Probability low to medium. The second Fine Gael seat could be in play here if Labour’s Kevin Humphreys gains traction. A strong Green performance could also impact. If the Irish Times opinion poll for Fine Gael is correct, this might make one of its seats in this “true blue” constituency vulnerable.to Independent or Sinn Féin. Paul Kehoe clung on in 2016 will face a challenge again. Sinn Féin’s Johnny Mythen performed well in the recent byelection and the party is flying in the polls. Verona Murphy’s candidacy could also have an impact on Kehoe.to Independent/Fianna Fáíl. The party won less votes than Fianna Fáíl in 2016 but still managed to retain both seats thanks to Labour transfers. Fianna Fáil seems to have a very strong ticket and should win a second seat. The decision by Michael Harty not to run will be a boon to it. Fine Gael’s only vulnerability is losing to another Independent candidate in the shape of Michael McNamara.to Greens/Fianna Fáil. Catherine Byrne has survived here against all the odds but this might be one election too many. Fianna Fáíl looks strong for a seat as do the Greens. Something will have to give and it could be Fine Gael.to Sinn Féin. Darren O’Rourke was not all that far away in 2016 and will not be all that far away this time either. Many of those who live on the Dublin side of the constituency are commuters who are one of the big groups clamouring for change. Regina Doherty’s seat, in particular, is vulnerable.FIANNA FÁIL2016: 44 seats: There is an extra seat. Needs a one per cent increase in vote share compared with the 2016 general election. Last time out this was a three-seater because outgoing Ceann Comhairle Seán Barrett was a TD. Fianna Fáil do have a quota so should pick up a seat. It is running two candidates, Mary Hanafin and Cormac Devlin and there is a danger they could cancel each other out. The Greens look strong for a seat here.: Target is a Fine Gael seat. Needs a one per cent rise in support from the 2016 general election. Finglas-based Paul McAuliffe topped the poll amid a strong Fianna Fáil performance in the local elections and is current Lord Mayor. Fine Gael’s3. Dublin CentralThere is an extra seat in this constituency. Needs a five percentage-point increase since 2016: This moves from a three- to four-seat constituency. Mary Fitzpatrick would need to add five points to her 11 per cent showing in 2016 though she performed very strongly in her own electoral area in the local elections. Mary Lou McDonald will top the poll and the Greens also look as if they they may pip Garry Gannon of the Social Democrats.One per cent increase required compared with 2016. Target is Independent or People Before Profit seats, or perhaps Fine Gael. Catherine Ardagh lost out by less than 40 votes in 2016. She has had a high profile since as her party’s leader in the Seanad and Fianna Fáil did well in the local elections. Only seat safe here is Sinn Féin and she is an odds-on favourite to regain the seat once held by her late father, Seán Ardagh. Sinn Féin would have won two seats here if it ran two candidates.Target is an Independent or Fine Gael seat. Two percentage-point rise required since 2016: Fine Gael’s second seat here was very vulnerable until Independent Michael Harty announced he would not contest the election. Fianna Fáil seems to have got its formula right. Cathal Crowe is a strong candidate who did himself no harm with his boycott of the proposed Royal Irish Constabulary event. It had five per cent more votes at 30 per cent than Fine Gael in 2016 but won only seat, while its rival won two. It looks as if Fine Gael will be the loser here, with Independent and former Labour TD Michael McNamara and Green Róisín Garvey in the hunt for the fourth seat.is going to be the battleground here. Canney is defending a seat he won handily. The other two seats are in the southeastern Loughrea-Portumna axis held by Anne Rabbitte of Fianna Fáil and in the Athenry-Gort/Kinvara southern axis held by Fine Gael’s Ciarán Cannon. The Independent brand around Tuam, so strong from 2014-2016, receded in last year’s local elections. Fine Gael has chosen a strong councillor,who topped the poll in Tuam. But Fianna Fáil won four out of seven council seats in Tuam, and that might give it an edge. It has chosen Cllr Donagh Killilea, a son of the late TD and MEP Mark Killilea. He’s come late into the race though but at this stage he might be ahead of Roche. Don’t underestimate Canney.Target is a Sinn Féin seat. An eight percentage-point increase needed here from 2016. Sinn Féin was vulnerable but not any more. Fianna Fáil had very good local elections and the addition of Tralee councillor Norma Foley gives it a very strong ticket and may dent the impact Michael Healy-Rae had in the northern part of the constituency in 2016. Norma Moriarty is comfortably placed in the Iveragh Peninsula in the south while sitting TD John Brassil is from Ballyheigue, geographically close to Foley. Fine Gael has a strong Listowel-based councillor Mike Kennelly as its second candidate. But Pa Daly, seen as a beaten docket a month ago, is now back in the frame for Sinn Féin.Target is a Labour seat. Seven percentage-point increase needed from 2016: Fianna Fáil is the largest party in the entire constituency but the last seat may turn out to be a battle between Fianna Fáíl’s Joe Flaherty and Micheál Carrigy for the “Longford” seat, a county in which Fine Gael is stronger. And now Sorca Clarke of Sinn Féin has moved into view.The target is a Sinn Féin or Fine Gael seat and a two percentage-point increase is required. Winning three out of five seats is always a massive task and if Fianna Fáíl pulls it off here, it will be well on its way to government. John McGuinness and Bobby Aylward divided the Kilkenny vote very well last time. Sinn Féin’sis no longer vulnerable. Fianna Fáil’s Carlow candidate Jennifer Murnane O’Connor came very close in 2016 and could get over the line this time. But will it be at the expense of Pat Deering of Fine Gael, or of her running mate, Aylward?Target is a Sinn Féin seat. Four percentage-point increase required since 2016. Another Sinn Féin TD, Pat Buckley, looked like facing a challenge following a poor local election for the party in Co Cork but now is seen as safe, even though the Sinn Féin vote is not as strong in Munster. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s second candidates had only a handful of votes separating them the last time around. The party’s second candidates are at opposite ends of the constituency. It’s now marginal.A Fine Gael seat is the target. A four percentage-point increase in required. It is a Fianna Fáil heartland and Fine Gael’s Marcella Corcoran Kennedy had a middling vote in 2016. However, Fine Gael did well in locals and it would be a tall order for Fianna Fáil to win three out of five here. Brian Stanley of Sinn Féin remains strong in Portlaoise.A Sinn Féin or Independent seat is the target. A nine point increase is needed. Fianna Fáil could have a higher percentage of votes than Fine Gael but might struggle with getting enough transfers to bring the party over the line. Its second candidate, James Byrne, is based in Drogheda where there is already a number of strong candidates. Sinn Féin now looks as if it will hold on to two which would make it a tricky proposition for Byrne to join Declan Breathnach in the Dáíl.An extra seat. A four percentage-point increase is required. An effective three-seater because Ceann Comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl was elected here. Fianna Fáil won two out of three in 2016 when it was actually a three-seater but a taller order this time as Mark Wall of Labour could sneak in. Suzanne Doyle is a high-profile running mate for sitting TD Fiona O’Loughlin and there is potential there. But it’s less straightforward than 2016. Fiona McLoughlin Healy and Cathal Berry are two Independents, one of whom might spring a surprise.
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