Harry McGee: Sinn Féin is unlikely to replicate its 2020 election performance

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Harry McGee: Sinn Féin is unlikely to replicate its 2020 election performance
Housing-CrisisImmigrationEoin-O-Broin
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Even if the party can pivot the overarching political discussion from immigration to housing, the terms of engagement will not be the same as in 2020

Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald speaking at the launch of the party's plan for international protection, in Dublin last month. Photgraph: Liam McBurney/PA Wire

After five years of the troika and hair-shirt economic policies, politically, the introduction of water charges challenged Fine Gael’s upbeat election slogan of “Let’s Keep the Recovery Going”. For those opposing the Coalition, the message could not have been simpler: No recovery is being felt on the ground, and the Government wants to introduce yet another new tax.

The 2020 general election was one of those contests that proved second-tier elections can be poor predictors of general election outcomes. The attack line was one of failure of delivery and of competence. It fed into a wider narrative of a generation locked out of property ownership. That election marked the first time that voters from outside the Sinn Féin pool seriously considered it as an alternative option for government.The monthly Snapshot poll by Ipsos for The Irish Times has been a useful tool for measuring public sentiment on an ongoing basis.

Over the past fortnight we have seen the first part of Sinn Féin’s strategy to recover its support, with a new policy on immigration that partly acquiesces to protesters who want to veto accommodation centres in their locality.

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