In this excerpt from their book, Kissinger, Schmidt, and Huttenlocher consider the transformations AI will impose on the planning, preparation and conduct of war. They conclude that humans remain essential to the equation.
In a traditional conflict, the psychology of the adversary is a critical focal point at which strategic action is aimed. AI knows only its instructions and objectives, not morale or doubt. But because it adapts in response to the phenomena it encounters, if two AI weapons systems are deployed against each other, neither is likely to precisely predict the results their interaction will generate or their collateral effects.
The deepest challenge, however, may be philosophical. If aspects of strategy come to operate in conceptual and analytical realms that are accessible to AI but not to human reason, they will become opaque—in their processes, reach and ultimate significance.
Inevitably, countries will delegate discrete, non-lethal tasks to AI algorithms , including the performance of defensive functions that detect and prevent intrusions in cyberspace. The"attack surface" of a digital, highly networked society will be too vast for human operators to defend manually. As many aspects of human life shift online, and as economies continue to digitize, a rogue actor could deploy an AI cyber weapon to disrupt whole sectors.
An autonomous system may have a human"on the loop," monitoring its activities passively, or"in the loop," with human authorization required for certain actions. Unless restricted by mutual agreement that is observed and verifiable, the latter form of weapons system may eventually encompass entire strategies and objectives—such as defending a border or achieving a particular outcome against an adversary—and operate without substantial human involvement.
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