A model study shows that climate change increased extreme rainfall during the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season by 10 percent.
In recent years, scientists have explored how climate change has worsened individual storms such as Irma, Maria, and Harvey in 2017; Florence in 2018; and Dorian in 2019. This involves a technique known as hindcasting, in which researchers try to recreate past weather rather than predicting upcoming conditions. Otherwise, though, “It’s no different than the National Weather Service running a seven-day forecast so that you can know what weather might be like on Saturday,” Reed says.
The team estimated that climate change boosted the most intense three-hourly rainfall rates and accumulated three-day rainfall amounts for tropical storms by, respectively, 10 percent and 5 percent during the 2020 season. When the researchers limited the analysis to storms that reached hurricane strength, they found that climate change increased extreme three-hourly and three-day rainfall by 11 percent and 8 percent, respectively.
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