Higher growth in Irish economic activity expected with key risk being Trump’s threats of tariffs

Bank-Of-Ireland News

Higher growth in Irish economic activity expected with key risk being Trump’s threats of tariffs
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Bank of Ireland revises upwards its 2025 GDP projections to growth of 4.3 per cent

Donald Trump: his threat to impose blanket tariffs on goods imported into the US is among the key risks to the Irish economy in 2025. Photograph: Kenny Holston/The New York Times

The bank said it was revising upwards its projections for GDP to growth of 4.3 per cent, with modified domestic demand of 4 per cent and a 2.2 per cent growth in employment for the year, up from 1.7 per cent previously. The revision follows a 3.5 per cent bounce in the economy in the third quarter of 2024, which had shown a contraction in five of the previous six quarters, with growth across both the multinational and indigenous sector.

Export growth is expected to be 3.4 per cent in 2025 and 5 per cent in 2026. There were concerns about rocky trade relations, with the threat of tariffs from the Trump administration looming over the EU. The report said Ireland should escape the worst of the impact though, should a trade war erupt with the US.

There was little cheer for house-hunters however, with property prices expected to grow by 5 per cent in 2025. The bank predicted more than 42,000 housing completions this year. Non-residential construction may be set for a fifth year of contraction.

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