A proposed 60-day ceasefire between Iran and the US aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but key details about the short-term agreement and long-term peace talks are still uncertain. While both nations have pledged to lift blockades, timelines vary, with President Trump expecting normal traffic by Friday but shipping companies warning it could take weeks. Demining operations may extend the closure for months, and Iranian plans to levy fees on passing ships could violate international law. The shutdown has disrupted global trade, and repairing damaged oil and gas infrastructure will take even longer, keeping upward pressure on prices.
A small boat moves along the shoreline where a cargo vessel, tugboat and industrial barge are all anchored in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran.
Photograph: Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/APappears to contain two elements: terms for an immediate 60-day ceasefire, and plans for talks during that time on a long-term peace deal. But when it comes to what is – or might be – in each of those categories, little has been confirmed so far. The text of the short-term agreement has not yet been released, and the long-term one doesn’t exist yet.
Yes, both Iran and the US have pledged to lift their blockades, but how fast the strait reopens is unclear. Trump said maritime traffic will return to normal by Friday, when a signing ceremony is held in Geneva. Shipping companies say it could take weeks. Thousands of vessels have been waiting for the blockade to end and there is uncertainty about whether there are mines in the waterway.
Death at the bridge: The Troubles murder of Terence McKeever, 40 years onare set to begin this process in accordance with a plan under discussion since March. However, demining could take many months.said there will be no tolls, Iranian officials say they may levy “fees” on passing ships, which were not charged before.
Legal experts say the plan would violate international law and it is not clear at this stage if the US side will object or turn a blind eye to it. Prices have already dropped, but upward pressure is likely to remain because it will likely take months for maritime traffic to return to normal levels, while repairing oil and gas infrastructure damaged during the war will take much longer.
The conflict has effectively shut the key Strait of Hormuz, disrupting the global economy. Photograph: Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via APBoth countries have indicated this does not form part of the immediate framework but will be negotiated as part of the long-term deal.
Consequently, it is difficult to say whether Iran will give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium that could be used to make weapons, or whether it would agree to halt such high-level enrichment – and if so, for how long. Trump has suggested Iran could continue low-level enrichment of the kind that produces fuel for power plants.
A senior US official says Washington has discussed the possibility of sanctions relief and “a big $300 billion fund to rebuild their country”. The fund, the source said, would not come from governments and instead would be created for companies keen to invest in the country. The structure and management of the fund is not immediately clear.
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