The Belarusian strongman is unruly, but dependent on Russia
Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin are often awkward. In September, when the Belarusian dictator ranted about men “running away” from mobilisation in Russia, his counterpart squirmed in his seat. That reflects their uncomfortable relationship. Mr Lukashenko relies on Mr Putin for economic, political and military support. He is blundering and boastful—often excruciatingly so. But he is also a man who never gives up negotiating.
In return, Russia began to treat Belarus as its backyard. In February 2022 Russian troops invaded Ukraine from Belarus. Russia’s army has relied on Belarus’s logistics network to bring in weapons and men to Ukraine, as well as to discreetly transport bodies home. In June Russia and Belarus announced that Russia had stationed nuclear weapons in Belarusian territory.
Repression and international isolation have made Mr Lukashenko and Mr Putin more reliant on one another than ever before. Still, they were and remain uncomfortable bedfellows. The Belarusian leader has pushed back against Russia’s attempt to integrate his country into its empire. From 1995 onwards a series of treaties bound the two countries tightly together, culminating in a “union state” agreement in 1999.
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