How to make money on the Super Bowl

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How to make money on the Super Bowl
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Just as the Super Bowl is America’s most-watched sporting event, it also attracts the most interest from punters

held in a state where betting on the game is legal. An estimated 50m people are predicted to wager a total of $16bn on the National Football League’s championship game, between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs, on February 12th.

Casual punters account for a much larger share of money bet on the Super Bowl than on other NFL contests. Just as they tend to bet on their preferred team to win the game, they also bet on star players to excel. In theory, if they bet enough on players performing better than expected, sportsbooks seeking to balance their risk will reduce payouts on such scenarios—and increase the returns they offer for bets that those players will disappoint.

Before receiving any data from Circa, we specified simple rules for this “under-and-no” strategy. Every year, the portfolio would bet equal amounts on the “under” on yards for each team’s starting quarterback, leading rusher and top two pass-catchers. Similarly, it would bet the same amount on “no touchdown” for each team’s three players most likely to score one and “no MVP” for each team’s leading MVP candidate.

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