What comes after the “Li Keqiang index”?
The index has had a good run since its introduction in 2010. A version has its own “ticker” on Bloomberg. It inspired a similar index for India. Teams of researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and separately at the New York Fed have tested the usefulness of Mr Li’s preferred indicators.
Critics argue that the declining energy intensity of China’s economy undermines the index. But that is not quite true. As long as electricity follows an identifiable trend, deviations from the trend are revealing about economic upturns and downturns. What really broke the Li Keqiang index was the covid-19 pandemic. The decline in retail sales, air travel and the property market was far more dramatic than the slowdown in industry, electricity use or rail freight.
Mr Pinkovskiy and his co-authors have instead used night-time lights not as a direct measure of growth, but as a way to adjudicate between other potential proxies. If the contenders are good at tracking night-time lights, they should be good at tracking growth, too. The authors’ investigations suggest that in addition to lending , electricity and rail freight, retail sales are a useful indicator. Adding them would certainly have made a difference during the pandemic.
No diplomatic cable has yet come to light revealing the indicators favoured by China’s probable new prime minister, Li Qiang. He was previously party chief of Shanghai, where services account for about three-quarters of. The equivalent figure in rust-belt Liaoning was only 40% when Li Keqiang first revealed the ingredients of the index named after him. Safe to say, then, any “Li Qiang index” will not neglect the services sector of China’s vastly altered economy.
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