Climate change could increase competition for land, food and water and drive inequality, conflict, migration and volatility
Displaced Somali women carry firewood past a donkey carcass in the scrubland near Doolow, Somalia last year. Photograph: Giles Clarke/The New York Times, with the global average surface temperature 1.45 degrees above the pre-industrial baseline. The last decade was the warmest 10-year period on record. In 2023 nearly one-third of the ocean surface was gripped by a marine heatwave, harming vital ecosystems and food systems, and glaciers suffered the largest loss of ice on record.
In fact, climate change risk and the security threats that it represent fall squarely within the taoiseach’s remit. The department publishes an annual national risk assessment, which highlighted in 2023 that interlocking risks “are even more significant than previously thought and demand a stronger global response and within a shorter time frame”.
When climate risks are properly considered in the context of all the functioning services that we rely on, the focus shifts away from abstract probabilities to thinking about worst-case scenarios and how to prevent them. Even with the Greens in Government, weakly joined-up policies are presented as if these are all that is needed to stave off the worst.
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