Incubation period, generation time, and reproduction number of initial monkeypox cases in Italy Cornell Monkeypox MonkeypoxInfection Transmission
By Tarun Sai LomteAug 4 2022Reviewed by Aimee Molineux In a recent study posted to the arXiv* preprint server, researchers analyzed the first human monkeypox cases in Italy.
About the study In the present study, researchers evaluated the first monkeypox cases in Italy. Data on patient characteristics such as age, sex, date of onset of symptoms, exposure modality, foreign travel, rash, and other signs, were collected. There were 255 PCR-confirmed monkeypox cases in Italy by July 8, 2022.
There were 30 patients with a known date of symptom onset. They assumed that the incubation period was distributed as a gamma function. The shape and scale parameters were estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Monte Carlo Markov Chain procedure and Metropolis-Hastings sampling. The first and third assumptions were deemed unrealistic hypotheses that could be considered upper and lower bounds of monkeypox transmission. The second assumption was used as the baseline for estimating Rt. The mean incubation period was 9.1 days, and the mean generation time was 12.5 days. The mean Rt in the first week of June was 2.43, following which Rt declined progressively.
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