Unpublished research shows State requires almost double current Government annual target for new builds
The “most plausible” scenario outlined by the Housing Commission paper, with a 2050 population of 6.75 million, 200-year lifespans for existing homes and falling household sizes comes in at a need for 42,000-62,000 homes per year. Photograph: Paulo Nunes dos Santos/Bloombergsays Ireland may need up to 62,000 homes built per year until 2050 to meet demand – almost double the annual target in the Government’s master plan for this decade.
It examines scenarios where, by mid-century, the population grows to between 6.25 million and 7 million people, and household size stays where it currently is, or shrinks to a level closer to where peer countries are – between 2.4 and two people per household. The inflow of people has both an immediate effect and later impacts, boosting the number of births. Population alone, the Minister was told, is likely to drive the baseline requirement for houses to between 35,000 and 40,000 per year.The research presentation argues that existing assessments of housing needs have a flawed assumption that the size of households will remain “largely constant” to 2040.
The “most plausible” scenario outlined by the paper, with a 2050 population of 6.75 million, 200-year lifespans for existing homes and falling household sizes comes in at a need for 42,000-62,000 homes per year. Lower assumptions suggest a need of 21,000 while the highest modelled figure is for 72,000 per year.
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