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The chief executive of Ballymore, John Mulryan, cautions that London's housing shortage is closer than many realise, forecasting a sharp decline in new-build completions that will pressure prices and rents in the coming years.
In a striking confirmation of growing concerns over the UK's capital housing market, John Mulryan, the chief executive of Ballymore, one of the country's largest privately‑owned builders, warned in an interview with the Times that London is already on the brink of a severe supply shortfall.
Mulryan made his remarks against the backdrop of an international comparison that contrasts Ireland's recent boom in residential construction with the notable decline in new starts across London over the last decade. After a period of rapid expansion that saw completions rise from 12,000 in 2015 to 36,000 in 2025, the city's private housing starts have plummeted, and the British government's own targets are now expected to be missed by as much as 92 percent.
"New-build completions haven't properly shrunk yet," Mulryan told the Times, adding that a real crisis is set to erupt in 2027, 2028 and 2029 when a sudden drop in new developments will leave London with a dramatic shortage of supply. The builder predicts that this gap will force up housing prices and rents, generating a "particularly severe" hit on affordability for the city's residents.
The warning comes at a time when both public and private sectors in the UK are grappling with the fallout of high borrowing costs, inflationary pressures and changing demographics. While many of the country's regions have continued to add housing stock, London's case has been more problematic.
Data from the Office for Housing shows that the number of new private residential dwellings approved between 2015 and 2025 has fallen consistently year on year, signalling a potential future mismatch between supply and demand. Mulryan himself is no stranger to the debate. He built and sold homes across Ireland during a boom period when the country's construction sector was a major engine of economic growth.
Now that role has shifted to British regulatory challenges and the necessity to propose a more strategic housing plan for the capital.
"There will be a sharp decline in new‑build completions," he stressed, "and that will be the real housing crisis. The pressure on the market will be highest after 2027.
" He added that an increase in supply - both affordable and private - must be complemented by new policy measures that encourage local authorities to plan and approve projects faster and with a focus on sustainability. Opposition to-and the debate around-London's housing supply is not limited to the private sector.
The Coalition of Councils and Chambers of Commerce has called for a sweeping review of planning regulations, arguing that the current backlog of applications hampers the city's ability to respond to an escalating demand for housing. Socio‑economic studies point to a stark trend of population growth in the capital: a projected rise of the resident population by roughly 300,000 over the next decade.
If the trend continues, Mulryan's forecast implies a scenario in which tenants and homeowners alike will face higher prices, budgetary constraints and potentially, longer commutes across the capital's expanse. He also admitted that his future strategy might include a shift toward housing that is "less affordable" to accommodate the high costs of construction, but he emphasised that working out a balance between profitability and affordability remains a delicate imperative for all stakeholders.
City‑wide implications may reach far beyond the immediate crisis. London has been an attractive destination for Irish expatriates, students and young professionals, many of whom are paralleled through cultural and economic links with Irish builder ecosystems. A shortage of new housing entry points could reverse a trend toward a more diverse, dynamic, and interconnected city. Mulryan's forewarning has been taken up by several policy think‑tanks, regional developers and housing advocates.
While the Chancellor's Housing Plan includes a new commitment to develop 200,000 additional affordable homes, critics point out that the majority of the 200,000 is earmarked for other regions outside London. As the city keenly watches the next years' developments, developers, planners, and the public must now grapple with whether the current trajectory - one of falling completions and tightening supply - can be altered before the sharpened baldness of the London housing marbles become sharper than expectations.
In the words of Ballymore's chief executive, the next decade is likely a toll‑booth - and how London steers through it will determine how many people can call its streets home
London Housing Crisis John Mulryan Ballymore New‑Build Completions Affordable Housing
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