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Irish grocery prices are set to rise in autumn 2026 due to the energy crisis and extreme weather, with fresh produce, olive oil, and bread and pasta all affected.
Irish grocery prices are expected to rise across the board in autumn 2026 because of the ongoing energy crisis and extreme weather events over the summer, according to Thia Hennessy, professor of agri-food economics at University College Cork. The warning follows a quarterly economic commentary from the Economic and Social Research Institute ( ESRI) earlier this week, which highlighted the State's reliance on imported food and noted that global food price shocks can be expected to pass through meaningfully to Irish consumer prices.
Energy Crisis and Extreme Weather
Hennessy said that the combination of high energy costs and extreme weather over the summer is likely to drive up food prices. She identified three areas where Irish consumers are likely to face cost increases, while holding out hope of lower prices for a fourth.
The ESRI commentary pointed to Ireland's dependence on imported food, meaning that disruptions in global markets can quickly affect prices on Irish shelves. Hennessy said we should think about weather and energy when considering what could trigger a global food price shock.
Fresh Vegetables, Salads and Fruits
Hennessy pointed particularly to fresh fruit and vegetables produced in the Mediterranean region, such as in Spain, France and Italy. Together, these three countries accounted for 55 per cent of the total harvest of fruit and vegetables in the European Union in 2024, according to Eurostat.
Any disruption to production in these countries can have a significant impact on supply across the EU, including Ireland. Extreme heat and dry conditions in the region have already affected harvests this summer.
Olive Oil, Bread and Pasta
Olive oil production is down after a poor harvest caused by extreme heat, drought and wildfires across Europe this summer. Hennessy said that all these factors have badly hit production, with yields down, so prices are expected to increase.
Continuing conflict in the Middle East has led to higher energy prices, which in turn have driven up the cost of fertiliser production, an energy-intensive process. In addition, the transportation of fertilisers has been disrupted because the Strait of Hormuz is a key transport route for the shipment of fertilisers globally.
Taken together, this means the cost of producing wheat has soared. Hennessy said we can expect to see the cost of producing bread and pasta increase, and the consumer price to increase as well.
Coffee Prices Expected to Fall
It is not all doom and gloom in the supermarket basket, as one household staple is expected to reduce in price in the coming months, according to Hennessy.
She said that on a more positive note, coffee prices can be expected to start declining this autumn after a period of very high coffee prices over the last two years because of harvest problems. There was a very good harvest of coffee in Brazil and Vietnam this year, the major exporting countries, so prices can be expected to fall.
The ESRI's quarterly economic commentary earlier this week underlined the vulnerability of Irish consumers to global food price shocks. With the energy crisis ongoing and extreme weather affecting harvests, the coming months are likely to bring higher prices for many everyday grocery items, even as coffee offers some relief.
Irish Grocery Prices ESRI Thia Hennessy Energy Crisis Extreme Weather Olive Oil Coffee Prices
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