Some experts are questioning the basis of Larry Summers’s warnings about inflation. He had “concerns very early,” one economist said. “He also put out plenty of other scenarios—enough that he almost couldn’t be wrong.”
column from last February, he cited an estimate by the Congressional Budget Office that the output gap—the difference between actual G.D.P. and the maximum level of G.D.P. that can be sustained with available labor, capital, and technology—was about fifty billion dollars a month. Summers wrote that the “proposed stimulus will total in the neighborhood of $150 billion a month,” and contended, “That is at least three times the size of the output shortfall.
Some of Summers’s critics also accuse him of downplaying very tangible benefits that the American Rescue Plan delivered to many ordinary Americans whose livelihoods were stricken by the pandemic. “It was about providing families with economic relief to get them to the other side,” Claudia Sahm said. “It did provide a lot of relief: we really gave families a lot of income.
When I asked Summers about the White House’s claim that the spending estimates for the American Rescue Plan in his original Washingtonarticle turned out to be too high, he said that he hadn’t seen the White House’s figures. He also defended his own figures, saying, “The hundred-and-fifty-billion-dollar figure referred to the total stimulus the economy would receive with the nine-hundred-billion-dollar measure passed in December and the proposed Rescue Act.
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